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Decline and Fall of the Pay Envelope |
| [Reprinted from The
Freeman, June, 1941] |
The Brookings Institution has undertaken to study and report the
distribution of income in relation to economic progress, and has
published its findings and its conclusions in a series of books. These
books may well turn out to be among the most important publications
since the invention of printing.
Especially pertinent to the problems of the distribution of wealth is
Spurgeon Bell's "Productivity, Wages and National Income" (The
Brookings Institution, Washington, D. C., $3.00.) This book concerns
itself with studying "how gains from increasing productivity are
distributed among the groups participating in production and the
consuming public; and the effects of the existing distribution upon
employment and national income." It presents statistics from a
number of different industries: manufacturing, mining, transportation,
and light and power in particular. It examines "the relation
between the expansion of productive efficiency and the income of .the
wage earning population," in order to discover "whether there
might perhaps be some deep-seated maladjustment in the economic organism
which was serving continuously to restrain or retard the rate of
economic expansion."
We need not, of course, go to statistics in order to learn that wages,
considered as a share of the product, are decreasing and have .been
decreasing for a long time. George announced clearly the law by which
this contraction of labor's share must take place in such a society as
ours. The extent to which there has been a concentration of economic
power in the United States ia documented toy a number of monographs
published by the Temporary National Economic Committee; in particular,
Monograph No. 26, on "Economic Power and Political Pressures,"
reveals the extent to which economic forces seek to influence the
American State (This monograph can fee had from the Superintendent of
Documents in Washington for 25c.) Now, people desire economic power only
in order that they may obtain more satisfactions; and to obtain
satisfactions by means of power must be to obtain them at the expense ot
someone's production. It follows necessarily, therefore, that as
political and economic power become centralized, there must be a decline
in the share of the producer; there must be a fall in wages.
So much for a priori reasoning. Plausible though it may be, deduction a
priori is an object of intense popular suspicion. The common phrase, "it
sounds swell in theory, but it won't work," reflects this
skepticism. The attitude is natural enough; people have been fooled too
often with what looked like air-tight logic and proved to be only wind.
We want proof, not by spinning theories, but by actual test. Very
properly, we want to be shown.
Is it true that wages, though they may increase as a quantity, tend to
fall as a proportion? "Productivity, Wages and National Income"
answers this question for us. First: though wages (according to the
theory) may increase as a quantity, the record shows that they have not
increased at all. Using 100 as an index, we find that in the period 1919
to 1938, inclusive, the average weekly earnings of industrial wage
earners have fluctuated between the 1919 low of 87.6 and the 1929 high
of 104.2. Note that in 1919 real weekly wages were less than in any
subsequent year, less even than in 1933, when the wage index stood at
89.6. This shows the danger of assuming a necessary correlation between
wages and "prosperity" for in 1919 there was moderately full
employment. We need to know, not only how much the weekly wage was, tout
also how many people weren't getting any wage at all.
After 1922 wages leveled off, and for nine years did not vary much from
100; the lowest figure is 98.8 in 1925, and 'the highest 104.2 in 1929.
A period of four years in which there was a drop to the lower 90's is
followed by the years 1936-38, during which the wage index fluctuates
between 98.8 and 102.8. During the boom period of the twenties, the
collapse of the depression, and the hypodermic economy of the later
thirties, real weekly wages fluctuated less than 8% from the average.
Before we leave the subject of wage rates, we may take a look at annual
earning figures. Here is where the great ups and downs of the boom and
depression periods become apparent. In 1919 and in 1933 the weekly
earning power of labor was about the same -- indeed, it was a trifle
higher in 1933; but in 1919 unemployment was estimated at 8%, and in
1933 at 46%. If we take this unemployment into consideration we find
that the 1933 wage was, not 89.6, but instead about 50; the estimated
annual income of employed industrial workers was $915 in 1933, but if we
include the zero incomes of the unemployed in figuring our average, the
money wage per worker drops to $497.
During all this time, two things were happening; the productivity of
labor was increasing, and employment was falling off. In manufacturing
generally, unit wage cost declined by about one third, although real
weekly wages remained about the same; this means that labor produced
three units in place of two. but received none of the increase as wages.
The change in the railroad industry was about the same. In mining, unit
wage cost decreased by over 50%: and in mining there was a considerable
drop in real weekly earnings as well: about 20%.
In one important field production increased even faster than
productivity; this was the electric power industry, in which
productivity increased to 220 and output to 240, both starting from 100
In 1924. But even here there was a 40% drop in the unit wage cost, so
that increasing production did not lead to any material increase in
employment. Dr. Bell observes that "Unit wage and salary cost fell
considerably more than the price of service."
Every science is largely dependent upon measurements. Indeed, it is
only by making measurements that our sciences can be reduced to a
quantitative form. And in its task of measuring, science must solve two
problems: what to measure, and how to measure it. No science has solved
these problems to perfection. But in economics we have not even made a
beginning toward a rational system of measurement. Why? We don't know
what we want.
The practical difficulties in the way of finding valid units in which
to measure economic variables are formidable enough. A perfect system
would measure satisfactions; would enable us to draw a graph of a man's
pleasure at beholding a blonde, a blonde's pleasure at beholding a
steak. Such perfection is probably forever unattainable. Failing that,
we try to measure the "national dividend" by car loadings,
bank clearings, money wages, real wages, and so on. That there is some
sort of correlation between these and actual satisfactions produced is
undeniable; but in the absence of even approximate knowledge of the
degree of correlation, to use them as measurements of production seems
to be climbing very far out on the statistical limb.
Does it really matter whether real wages in 1933 were 89.6 or 98.6? Is
it so important to know whether workingmen had as much to eat one year
as another? Isn't the really important question, not "How much did
he get?" but rather "How was the pile divided?"
Such a question must lead us to ask who were the sharers in the
division. The Brookings Institution study does not go farther below the
surface than is customary; it distinguishes between "wages"
and "salaries," but makes no distinction among non-labor
incomes, which are lumped as "earnings on capital." That the
income from a unique mine such as the Climax deposit is vastly different
from the income of an individual capitalist in such a competitive field
as (say) dress manufacturing must be perfectly well known to every
serious student of economics; but it has not influenced economic
analysis to any great extent. Yet the fact remains that we must separate
non-labor income into one part which may be regarded as a reward offered
in a free market for valuable service, and another, resulting from
privilege, monopoly, superior bargaining power, or some other
exploitative advantage; and that until we have made such a separation we
shall learn little from our statistics.
Dr. Bell recommends that industry seek a remedy by passing on to the
consumer, in the form of lower prices, the savings which result from
increased productive capacity. It is a vain counsel -- doubly vain; for
farmers and manufacturers in highly competitive fields have no choice
but to sell at the market, often at a loss; while asking those who enjoy
a measure of protection from competition to waive their profits seems a
little like asking the wolf to disgorge Little Red Riding Hood.
The economic machine exists for the purpose of producing wealth. If we
consume wealth, someone has produced it If someone else has produced it,
and we have not rendered a commensurate service in exchange, we are
economic parasites. In nature, parasite and host often achieve an
acceptable biological balance; but in economics it seems to be
otherwise. Economic parasitism has increased -- for to what other cause
can we attribute the decline in the portion of the wage earner? -- and
apparently we are nearing the time when our parasites will overtax the
host's capacity to support them. The growing army of bureaucrats In
Washington swells the number alarmingly.
Must all perish together? We need not allow our pessimism to run away
with us. "Productivity, Wages and National Income" is still
one of the most important books of the present day. Despite the handicap
of having to express its findings in units which have no measurable
correlation with anything whatever in the real world, it supplies us
with what is probably the best information yet obtainable. Its obvious
sincerity, its thoroughness, its recognition of the existence of "some
deep-seated maladjustment," are all happy auguries. For centuries
men believed that the earth was the center of the universe, and invented
horrible pretzel-curves to describe the motions of the planets; all this
complication was swept away by a simple change of viewpoint. May we not
hope for some similar revolution in economics?
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