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| [Reprinted in the
Henry George News, June, 1969] |
BARELY six months have elapsed since the international monetary
crisis which centered around the French franc. Now there is another one
revolving around the German deutschmark. Revalue the mark upwards! is
the insistent cry, to which Germany has so far turned a deaf ear. And
well it should. After all, it is in the position of a man who has
followed relatively good health habits while his neighbors have been
blithely treading the primrose path. Instead of following his example
they demand that he put shackles on himself so he will not be able to
outrun them in the race for life.
As France and England have been pursuing unsound economic policies and
inflating their money supplies at a faster pace than Germany, buyers
have been fleeing from the franc and the pound into the mark, so that
Germany is hard put to it to keep the mark from rising above 25 cents.
Under the rules of the International Monetary Fund it must value its
currency within one percent, plus or minus, of that figure.
Probably few see any reason why Germany should not raise the price of
its currency if that would stabilize international trade, as the
intricacies of foreign exchange are inexplicable to most. The same end
could be attained if the prices of the weaker currencies, the franc and
the pound, were reduced - but French and British politicians do not wish
to admit that they have been following unwise policies. Nevertheless
since Germany has so far refused to upvalue its mark, the franc and
pound may have to be devalued, and in the not too distant future.
But why are foreign exchange rates fixed? Because during the 1920's, as
nations departed from the gold standard, they devalued their currencies
hoping to take into account the inflation of their money supplies, and
also to encourage exports at the expense of imports. Economic ignorance
leads many to believe that exports should exceed imports, but that is
impossible as exports are paid for by imports.
Still, manipulation of currencies can sometimes allow exports to exceed
imports for a time - usually an interval when politicos are up for
re-election. In fact the main reason why Germany is not revaluing
upwards may have little to do with economics, since there is to be a
major election this September.
The shocking devaluations in the 20's made it appear wise to Americans
to institute fixed rates. The opportunity to accomplish this occurred
after World War II, when most nations were prostrate and willing to
follow America's lead.
It may well be that the reason fixed exchange rates are so popular is
because they were in effect when most nations were on the gold standard,
and when they were based solely on differences between the monetary
units. In the early part of this century the American dollar represented
23.22 grains of pure gold and the English pound 113 grains. The ratio of
113 to 23.22 is 4.8665, that is, the pure gold of the pound (a
sovereign) weighed 4.8665 times that of the dollar. That meant that the
pound's exchange rate, or price, in American terms, was $4.8665. This
was known as the mint par of exchange. The fixed rates were thus merely
the result of physical relationships, not of governments' mandates or
interferences.
But that is no reason why fixed rates should exist when the nations'
currencies are no longer backed by gold. Unfortunately, by means of
policing and taxing powers, governments have enforced the use of "paper
money" which is nothing but their IOUs on which no interest is
paid. Today, then, the exchange ratio of the currencies of such nations
as France and Germany, is the ratio of the non-interest bearing
circulating debts of France to the non-interest bearing circulating
debts of Germany, as they apply to foreign trade. Such a ratio could not
possibly be fixed unless the governments, through intervention, kept it
so.
History has proven that it is impossible to maintain fixed rates for
any considerable length of time. Despite the existence of the
International Monetary Fund which is supposed to police such rates, a
change was made when the English devalued the pound from $2.80 to $2.40
in 1967.
Attempts to eliminate the recurring exchange rate imbroglios are
fruitless as long as nations are on paper currencies. The proposal to
let the rates "float," that is, to permit them to fluctuate in
the marketplace, is a step in the right direction, for it amounts to
putting the nations on a form of unofficial gold standard. In any system
there is always a fixed point. Even in Einstein's theory of relativity
there is the velocity of light, which is a constant.
And where would be the fixed point in floating exchange rates? Probably
in comparing currencies people would ascertain the rates at which they
were being exchanged for gold. For example, if 25 English paper pounds
were exchanged for an ounce of gold in London, and at the same time and
place 50 American paper dollars were exchanged for an ounce of gold, the
price of the pound would be considered 50 to 2 or $2. In other words,
one English paper pound might be exchanged for two American paper
dollars. What this means is that the paper currencies would float around
the real money of the world - gold. As long as governments refrained
from interference, as they did under the official gold standard, a
viable system would operate.
But governments will interfere. Even if they stopped inflating their
currencies when the free market was established, such a halt would only
be temporary, because any nation, particularly if it is a great power,
will suffer economic and social disturbances sooner or later if it
treats land as though it were private property. Poverty, unemployment
and busts will be the order of the day. The one palliative which is
invariably adopted to alleviate such conditions is inflation of the
money supply, for it usually does work temporarily. But this causes the
exchange rate of such a nation's currency to drop. Politics being what
it is, those in control wish to disguise that fact and so intervene in
one way or another; ergo, the free market disappears. Therefore until
the day arrives when men see the obvious - that they are living on and
from the land, and that access to the land must always be freely
available - monetary crisis will follow monetary crisis no matter what
are created to prevent them.
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